Recommendations for the integral diagnosis of chronic viral hepatitis in a single analytical extraction. / Recomendaciones para el diagnóstico integral de las hepatitis virales crónicas en una única extracción analítica.

The Spanish Society of Digestive Pathology (SEPD), the Spanish Association for the Study of the Liver (AEEH), the Spanish Society of Infections and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) and its Viral Hepatitis Study Group (GEHEP), and with the endorsement of the Alliance for the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis in Spain (AEHVE), have agreed on a document to carry out a comprehensive diagnosis of viral hepatitis (B, C and D), from a single blood sample; that is, a comprehensive diagnosis, in the hospital and/or at the point of care of the patient. We propose an algorithm, so that the positive result in a viral hepatitis serology (B, C and D), as well as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), would trigger the analysis of the rest of the virus, including the viral load when necessary, in the same blood draw. In addition, we make two additional recommendations. First, the need to rule out a previous hepatitis A virus (VHA) infection, to proceed with its vaccination in cases where IgG-type studies against this virus are negative and the vaccine is indicated. Second, the determination of the HIV serology. Finally, in case of a positive result for any of the viruses analyzed, there must be an automated alerts and initiate epidemiological monitoring.

[SARS-C0V.2/COVID-I9 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system]. / SARS-COV.2/COVID-19 en Colombia: tendencias, predicciones y tensiones sobre el sistema sanitario.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. METHODS: We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. RESULTS: The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. CONCLUSION: Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.

Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Reduces the Severity of COVID-19 in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HIV-positive patients on tenofovir hydroxyl fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine have a lower risk of COVID-19 and hospitalization than those given other treatments. Our aim was to analyze the severity of COVID-19 in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on TDF or entecavir (ETV). METHODS: Spanish hospital databases (n = 28) including information regarding adult CHB patients on TDF or ETV for the period February 1st to November 30th 2020 were searched for COVID-19, defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction, and for severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Of 4736 patients, 117 had COVID-19 (2.5%), 67 on TDF and 50 on ETV. Compared to patients on TDF, those on ETV showed (p < 0.05) greater rates of obesity, diabetes, ischemic cardiopathy, and hypertension. COVID-19 incidence was similar in both groups (2.3 vs. 2.6%). Compared to TDF, patients on ETV more often (p < 0.01) had severe COVID-19 (36 vs. 6%), required intensive care unit (ICU) (10% vs. 0) or ventilatory support (20 vs. 3%), were hospitalized for longer (10.8 ± 19 vs. 3.1 ± 7 days) or died (10 vs. 1.5%, p = 0.08). In an IPTW propensity score analysis adjusted for age, sex, obesity, comorbidities, and fibrosis stage, TDF was associated with a sixfold reduction in severe COVID-19 risk (adjusted-IPTW-OR 0.17, 95%CI 0.04-0.67, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Compared to ETV, TDF seems to play a protective role in CHB patients with SARS-CoV-2 whereby the risk of severe COVID-19 is lowered.

Students and Teachers' Need for Sustainable Education: Lessons from the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic challenged the sustainability of higher education as millions of students were forced out of school, shifting to online learning instead of in-class education. In the Erasmus+ project, Virtual Presence in Higher Education Hybrid Learning Delivery (VIE), we were concerned with the level of readiness and the ability of higher-education students and teachers to face this changing situation. This paper reports the results of a survey which assessed the experiences that students and teachers had during the pandemic and, in particular, the development of soft skills through active learning methodologies. The project results show that there are still some unmet needs, but existing digital technologies, tools, and platforms already provide valuable solutions both for students and teachers that ensure a continuation of high-quality learning experiences.

Early detection and treatment of attention deficits in preterm and at term infants with risk factors for brain damage.

Cognitive deficits in infants born preterm and infants at term with risk factors for brain damage are a common outcome. Attention deficits in preterm infants are related to the development of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and therefore, there is a need for earlier evaluations and treatment procedures that are implemented before the presence of signs of ADHD. METHODS: We studied preterm (74%) and term infants with the Infant Scale of Selective Attention (ISSA, Escala de Evaluación de la Atención Selectiva (EEAS), in Spanish). This scale evaluates both visual- and auditory-orienting attention. Two groups participated, one with attention deficits (n = 26) and another with regular performance (n = 36). An early attention-stimulation program (EASP) was implemented in the infant group with attention deficits from three to eight months of age. All infants underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and visual and auditory evoked responses were assessed. RESULTS: All infants had prenatal and perinatal risk factors for brain damage and abnormal MRI findings, and the majority had abnormalities compatible with white matter injury. However, there were four infants with porencephalic cysts; 3 of them were in the treated group. At the beginning of the treatment, ISSA values showed differences between groups. These differences persisted for five months in the visual test and up to the sixth month in the auditory evaluation. Afterward, there were no significant differences, indicating that infants with attention deficits had satisfactorily responded to the treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The ISSA is helpful for the early evaluation of visual and auditory attention. Infants with attention deficits react well enough after six months of EASP.

Listening to bluetooth beacons for epidemic risk mitigation.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic let to efforts to develop and deploy digital contact tracing systems to expedite contact tracing and risk notification. Unfortunately, the success of these systems has been limited, partly owing to poor interoperability with manual contact tracing, low adoption rates, and a societally sensitive trade-off between utility and privacy. In this work, we introduce a new privacy-preserving and inclusive system for epidemic risk assessment and notification that aims to address these limitations. Rather than capturing pairwise encounters between user devices as done by existing systems, our system captures encounters between user devices and beacons placed in strategic locations where infection clusters may originate. Epidemiological simulations using an agent-based model demonstrate that, by utilizing location and environmental information and interoperating with manual contact tracing, our system can increase the accuracy of contact tracing actions and may help reduce epidemic spread already at low adoption.

Pooled testing of traced contacts under superspreading dynamics.

Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing pooled testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pooled testing method, Dorfman's method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple pooled testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using Dorfman's method. Our method provides the greatest competitive advantage when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small, or the distribution of secondary infections is highly overdispersed. Moreover, it maintains this competitive advantage under imperfect contact tracing and significant levels of dilution.

Coping strategies patterns to buffer the psychological impact of the State of Emergency in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic's early months.

Coping style represents the cognitive and behavioral patterns to manage particular demands appraised as taxing the resources of individuals. Studies report associations between certain coping styles and levels of adjustment of anxious symptomatology and emotional distress. The main objective of this study was to analyze behavioral co-occurrent patterns and relationships in the coping strategies used to deal with psychological distress displayed by the Spanish adult population during the first State of Emergency and lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a cross-sectional study that uses selective methodology complemented with an indirect observational methodology, with a nomothetic/punctual/unidimensional design. We collected 996 surveys from 19 out of the 22 autonomous regions in Spain. We focused the analysis on sociodemographic variables, cumulative incidence of the COVID-19 disease and psychological distress variables. We performed two different inferential analyses: Lag sequential analysis to define the participant coping patterns, and polar coordinate analysis to study the interrelationship of the focal behavior with conditioned behaviors. We found behavioral co-occurrent patterns of coping strategies with problem avoidance being found as the coping strategy most frequently engaged by participants. Interestingly, the problem avoidance strategy was not associated with lower anxious symptomatology. By contrast, emotion-focused strategies such as express emotions and social support were associated with higher anxious symptomatology. Our findings underscore the importance of furthering our understanding of coping as a way to aid psychological distress during global public health emergencies.

The Urban Water Cycle as a Planning Tool to Monitor SARS-CoV-2: A Review of the Literature

COVID-19 is a terrible virus that has impacted human health and the economy on a global scale. The detection and control of the pandemic have become necessities that require appropriate monitoring strategies. One of these strategies involves measuring and quantifying the virus in water at different stages of the Urban Water Cycle (UWC). This article presents a comprehensive literature review of the analyses and quantifications of SARS-CoV-2 in multiple UWC components from 2020 to June 2021. More than 140 studies worldwide with a focus on industrialized nations were identified, mainly in the USA, Australia, and Asia and the European Union. Wastewater treatment plants were the focus of most of these studies, followed by city sewerage systems and hospital effluents. The fewest studies examined the presence of this virus in bodies of water. Most of the studies were conducted for epidemiological purposes. However, a few focused on viral load and its removal using various treatment strategies or modelling and developing strategies to control the disease. Others compared methodologies for determining if SARS-CoV-2 was present or included risk assessments. This is the first study to emphasize the importance of the various individual components of the UWC and their potential impacts on viral transmission from the source to the public.

Cardiac magnetic resonance in recovering COVID-19 patients. Feature tracking and mapping analysis to detect persistent myocardial involvement.

BACKGROUND: Post-COVID-19 patients may incur myocardial involvement secondary to systemic inflammation. Our aim was to detect possible oedema/diffuse fibrosis using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) mapping and to study myocardial deformation of the left ventricle (LV) using feature tracking (FT). METHODS: Prospective analysis of consecutively recruited post-COVID-19 patients undergoing CMR. T1 and T2 mapping sequences were acquired and FT analysis was performed using 2D steady-state free precession cine sequences. Statistical significance was set to p < 0.05. RESULTS: Included were 57 post-COVID-19 patients and 20 healthy controls, mean age 59 ± 15 years, men 80.7%. The most frequent risk factors were hypertension (33.3%) and dyslipidaemia (36.8%). The contact-to-CMR interval was 81 ± 27 days. LV ejection fraction (LVEF) was 61 ± 10%. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was evident in 26.3% of patients (19.3%, non-ischaemic). T2 mapping values (suggestive of oedema) were higher in the study patients than in the controls (50.9 ± 4.3 ms vs 48 ± 1.9 ms, p < 0.01). No between-group differences were observed for native T1 nor for circumferential strain (CS) or radial strain (RS) values (18.6 ± 3.3% vs 19.2 ± 2.1% (p = 0.52) and 32.3 ± 8.1% vs 33.6 ± 7.1% (p = 0.9), respectively). A sub-group analysis for the contact-to-CMR interval (<8 weeks vs ≥ 8 weeks) showed that FT-CS (15.6 ± 2.2% vs 18.9 ± 2.6%, p < 0.01) and FT-RS (24.9 ± 5.8 vs 33.5 ± 7.2%, p < 0.01) values were lower for the shorter interval. CONCLUSIONS: Post-COVID-19 patients compared to heathy controls had raised T2 values (related to oedema), but similar native T1, FT-CS and FT-RS values. FT-CS and FT-RS values were lower in post-COVID-19 patients undergoing CMR after < 8 weeks compared to ≥ 8 weeks.

Perceived Stress and Increased Food Consumption during the 'Third Wave' of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of people worldwide. An increase in perceived stress can lead to unhealthy behaviors such as increased food consumption. The aim of this study was to find the level of perceived stress and its relationship with increased food consumption during the "third wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain. This was a cross-sectional study that employed anonline self-reported frequency of consumption questionnaire and the Perceived Stress Scale-10. A total of 637 subjects participated and 83.6% of respondents had moderate or high stress-more prevalent in the female and young respondents. Moreover, 36.1% of respondents reported that they had increased the frequency of consumption of some foods, mainly nuts, snacks, and jellybeans, along with coffee, tea, cocoa, and soft drinks. Eating between meals was more pronounced in those with high stress (65.1%) than in those with moderate stress (40.4%) and low stress (20.2%). Furthermore, the respondents with high stress reported greater weight gain. Thus, the results show that the level of perceived stress during the 'third wave' of this pandemic increased food consumption.

Consumption of over-the-Counter Drugs: Prevalence and Type of Drugs.

Recently, there has been an increase in the use of over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. The consumption of these medicines can be unsafe, as incorrect self-diagnosis or the ingestion of inappropriate doses can lead to side effects and the occurrence of adverse reactions and drug-drug interactions. A cross-sectional descriptive observational study was carried out, targeting the entire Spanish population by using an online questionnaire. The results showed that 78.9% of the subjects had previously taken or were currently taking OTC drugs. This consumption decreased as the age of the subjects increased, with a prevalence of 36.4% of subjects aged ≥ 71 taking OTC drugs. Analgesics were the most consumed OTC drugs (49.1%) especially in women, youngsters with non-formal educational qualifications, and individuals of a low-medium socioeconomic level residing in urban areas. Measures should be implemented to optimize the safe use of OTC drugs in order to avoid the occurrence of secondary events associated with the lack of knowledge related to their the usage.

Proceedings of the Tenth International Meeting on Neuroacanthocytosis Syndromes.

The 10th International Meeting on Neuroacanthocytosis Syndromes was held online on March 10th12th, 2021. The COVID19 pandemic situation made our planned meeting in Barcelona on March 2020 to be suspended by one year, and finally took place online. The meeting followed the previous nine international symposia, the last of which was held in Dresden, Germany in March, 2018. The setting of the meeting encouraged interactions, exchange of ideas and networking opportunities among the high number of participants from around the globe, including scientists, neurologists and specially patients and caregivers. A total of 27 oral communications were distributed in 8 sessions with topics ranging from molecular and cellular functions of VPS13 genes and proteins, their involvement in Neuroacanthocytosis Syndromes and finally clinical aspects and patients care. In addition, 5 posters were presented. Altogether, scientists and neurologists discussed recent advances and set the bases for next steps, action points, and future studies in close collaboration with the patients associations, which are always actively involved in the whole process.

Adult Education: A Sustainable Model for the Reduction of Psychosocial and Educational Risks Caused by COVID-19

Education for health and sustainability has to be understood from a new perspective beyond the traditional conceptual limits. Thus, following the lines of the 2030 sustainable development goals, we examine how permanent education and adult education can become a fundamental element for the achievement of said objectives, serving as a neutraliser of psychosocial risk factors. In other words, a quality education throughout life becomes a dynamic factor for the development of lifestyle habits and healthy aging, purposes that during the pandemic and the state of alarm have been altered by confinement, closure of educational centres, and methodological changes. The objective of the study is to analyse whether the maintenance of educational activity has influenced the psychological state of people, reducing, neutralising, or increasing the psychosocial risk factors linked to confinement and the evolution of COVID-19. For this, an observational study was developed, taking as a case the Universidad Popular Dos Hermanas (Seville, Spain), with a sample of 384 learners over the age of 16 years. The variables considered were sociodemographic means and technical tools, assessment of the institution, teacher assessment, and psychosocial variables related to possible effects caused by the context. The data were collected through a self-developed questionnaire. Descriptive analyses and bivariate correlations were carried out. Methodological diversity and positive correlations were shown in terms of the institution’s function, teaching assessment, maintenance of activity, and reduction of psychopathological risks.

Tuberculosis trend in Madrid region in native and foreign population (2009-2018)

Background: Tuberculosis is a major public health problem and most cases are concentrated in vulnerable populations. The objective was to describe the incidence rates trend in native and foreign population (2009-2018) in Madrid Region. Methods: Retrospective analysis of cases from the Tuberculosis Regional Registry of cases of Madrid Region 2009-2018. Annual incidence rates were calculated by country of birth (Spain, other), sex and age group (<15, 15-34, 35-44, 45-64,> 64), using the annual January 1st continuous register population. The infection rate trend and the annual percentage change (APC) were calculated, along with the best jointpoint adjustment using Jointpoint regression. Results: 7,696 cases were analyzed, 48.2% were foreign-born individuals. Average age in native population was 50 years old (SD: 23.96) and 35 (DS: 36.64) in foreignborn individuals (p<0.001). The overall incidence rate decreased from 17.30 in 2009 to 9.00 per 100,000 in 2018 and was higher in men. Pulmonary tuberculosis reduced from 11.90 to 6.55. Among native population, the incidence of TB fell from 10.29 to 5.24 with an APC of -7.3% (95%IC: -8.9;-5.7) (p<0.05), no jointpoint was identified. Among foreign-born individuals the incidence of tuberculosis declined from 46.54 to 25.49, a joint point was identified in 2013, observing an incidence decrease for the period 2009-2013 and APC of -13.8% (IC95%: -17.5;-10.0). Conclusions: The global incidence rate in this period has decreased by approximately 7% per year. However, this reduction occurred mainly in native population. In foreignborn individuals the incidence decreased by approximately 14% during the 2009-2013 period, after this period there have been no significant incidence changes.

Psychological Health and Physical Activity Levels during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been devastating in all senses, particularly psychologically. Physical activity (PA) is known to aid psychological well-being, and it is worth investigating whether PA has been a coping strategy during this pandemic. The objective of this literature review is to analyze the extent to which engaging in PA during the COVID-19 pandemic impacts psychological health in the adult population. The literature was searched in all databases from the EBSCOhost Research Database-MEDLINE, APA PsycArticles, between others-published between 1 January 2019 and 15 July 2020. From 180 articles found, 15 were eligible. The reviewed articles showed an association between mental health distress-e.g., stress, anxiety, depressive symptoms, social isolation, psychological distress-and PA. This research concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown measures caused psychological distress. Those studies that analyzed PA showed that, during quarantine, adults increased their sedentary time and reduced their PA levels, showing controversial psychological outcomes. This review discusses whether PA is an effective strategy to face the COVID-19 pandemic psychological effects contributing to a further putative increase in the prevalence of psychiatric disorders.

SARS-C0V2/COVID-19 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system

RESUMEN Objetivo Analizar la evolución temporal de la primera etapa del COVID-19 en Colombia a través del modelo SIRD. Métodos Se analizó la evolución temporal del COVID-19 según los individuos infectados en Colombia del 6 de marzo al 15 de abril de 2020. Se realizó el modelo SIRD modificando la tasa de transmisión (b) bajo tres escenarios: 1) cuarentena hasta el 1 de julio, 2) cuarentena flexible., hasta el 11 de mayo con un b del 4%, y 3) cuarentena flexible2 hasta el 11 de mayo con b del 8%, con el fin de predecir el número de casos totales y el 5% de infectados en UCI para contrastarlo con el número de camas y personal UCI. Resultados Los escenarios mostraron que levantar la cuarentena el 11 de mayo significará un aumento en el número de infectados, entre 54 105 a 116 081 individuos con COVID-19. Así mismo, la rápida aceleración en la tasa de contagios se traduce en una mayor demanda de camas y personal en UCI: en el escenario de cuarentena flexible2 se colapsarían las 2 650 camas disponibles y se necesitaría de 5 intensivitas y 4 enfermeras por paciente al 1 julio. Conclusión Las medidas de distanciamiento social obligatorias contribuyen al retraso de la saturación del sistema de salud;sin embargo, son difíciles de sostener en el tiempo desde una perspectiva económica. Por lo tanto, para tener una distensión de la cuarentena es necesario adoptar medidas para ampliar la capacidad del sistema de salud y así evitar su colapso.(AU) ABSTRACT Objective To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. Methods We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. Results The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. Conclusion Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.(AU)

Clinical characteristics and outcomes among hospitalized adults with severe COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary medical center and receiving antiviral, antimalarials, glucocorticoids, or immunomodulation with tocilizumab or cyclosporine: A retrospective observational study (COQUIMA cohort).

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak challenges the Spanish health system since March 2020. Some available therapies (antimalarials, antivirals, biological agents) were grounded on clinical case observations or basic science data. The aim of this study is to describe the characteristics and impact of different therapies on clinical outcomes in a cohort of severe COVID-19 patients. METHODS: In this retrospective, single-center, observational study, we collected sequential data on adult patients admitted to Hospital Universitario Quironsalud Madrid. Eligible patients should have a microbiological (positive test on RT-PCR assay from a nasal swab) or an epidemiological diagnosis of severe COVID-19. Demographic, baseline comorbidities, laboratory data, clinical outcomes, and treatments were compared between survivors and non-survivors. We carried out univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to assess potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality. FINDINGS: From March 10th to April 15th, 2020, 607 patients were included. Median age was 69 years [interquartile range, {IQR} 22; 65% male). The most common comorbidities were hypertension (276 [46·94%]), diabetes (95 [16·16%]), chronic cardiac (133 [22·62%]) and respiratory (114 [19·39%]) diseases. 141 patients (23·2%) died. In the multivariate model the risk of death increased with older age (odds ratio, for every year of age, 1·15, [95% CI 1·11 - 1·2]), tocilizumab therapy (2·4, [1·13 - 5·11]), C-reactive protein at admission (1·07, per 10 mg/L, [1·04 - 1·10]), d-dimer > 2·5 µg/mL (1·99, [1·03 - 3·86]), diabetes mellitus (2·61, [1·19 - 5·73]), and the PaO2/FiO2 at admission (0·99, per every 1 mmHg, [0·98 - 0·99]). Among the prescribed therapies (tocilizumab, glucocorticoids, lopinavir/ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, cyclosporine), only cyclosporine was associated with a significant decrease in mortality (0·24, [0·12 - 0·46]; p<0·001). INTERPRETATION: In a real-clinical setting, inhibition of the calcineurin inflammatory pathway, NF-κΒ, could reduce the hyperinflammatory phase in COVID-19. Our findings might entail relevant implications for the therapy of this disease and could boost the design of new clinical trials among subjects affected by severe COVID-19. FUNDING: Hospital Universitario Quironsalud Madrid. Own fundings for COVID-19 research.

SARS-C0V.2/COVID-I9 in Colombia: tendencies, predictions, and tensions about health system

ABSTRACT Objective To analyze the temporal progress in the early stage of COVID-19 in Colombia using the SIRD model. Methods We analyzed the temporal progress of COVID-19 based on the number of infected persons between March 6th and April 15th, 2020. The SIRD model was implemented with variation in the rate of transmission (b) in three ways. A. Quarantine until July 11. 2. B. Flexible quarantine, [b=4%]. C. Flexible quarantine2 [b=8%]. Consecutively, we aimed to predict the number of total cases and 5% of infected persons in ICU to match them with the hospital beds and ICU staff. Results The results show that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase from 54 105 to 116 081 approximately, if the quarantine is lifted on May 11. If the infection rate increase, more hospital beds and a bigger ICU staff will be mandatory. The currently 2 650 beds won't be enough in the flexible quarantine2, and five intensive care specialist and four nurses per patient will be needed. Conclusion Measures like mandatory social distancing help delay the saturation of the health care system. However, it's impracticable to maintain them due to a possible economic crisis. Therefore, it's necessary to take action to enhance the ability of the health care system to avoid a collapse.